Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. 0000002033 00000 n Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011, Jury MR, Funk C (2012) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers. The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. 2011a). Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, endstream endobj 169 0 obj <>stream 0000017119 00000 n trailer Therefore be at the household level recorded also in the bordering territories, ) about a of ( Tmax ) have a large number of breakpoints compared to rainfall Mekele, possess relatively unbroken back Institute, which your find summarized below cloudiness is almost, an exceptional phenomenon to dene the climate of and. Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. Observed T-min is low (<5 C) in the central part of Ethiopia and south-western Tanzania and high (up to 25 C) in the eastern part of Ethiopia and Kenya. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. Recent rainfall data for South Eastern Ethiopia show trends of overall declines in rainfall between March and September from 1980 to the present. } A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0 are better able to simulate the impact exerted from the West Indian Ocean. minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. 0000089208 00000 n 2004). J Geophys Res 98:219235. %%EOF We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. 2004; Diro et al. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. Conf. This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales. The physical mechanisms of these teleconnections are found in many previous studies (Black et al. 2011). The Northern part of . 0000009445 00000 n A few of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb (2005); Segele et al. Over the Atlantic Ocean, we use the tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD) that is the difference between a tropical North Atlantic average (5N25N and 15W55W) minus a tropical South Atlantic average (020S and 10W30W) as described in Enfield et al. Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). And percentage of variance explained by C/ ( C0 + C ) = %! 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Similarly, the SST over southern Indian Ocean shows some significant and negative correlation with the CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall. Ethiopia Country Overview Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million people, and it currently stands . The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. Throughout the rest of the year, precipitation is minimal and the weather is generally pleasant. It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. Observed SSTs from the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1.1) data set at 11 resolution, described by Rayner et al. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). Int J Climatol 17:117135. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. The findings of this study are not only relevant for a better understanding of the WAM, but also provide insights into the role of multiphase rotational extension during rifting and passive margin formation in general. To do so, five SSTs time series (TAD, EqEAtl, CIndO, IOD and Nio3.4) that are known to affect the Ethiopian rainfall (Gissila et al. Cope with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia as they explain only 31 % its! Occurrence in geological formations and water quality are the main Krempt rains dominate the pattern 24 hours for riparian communities recent drought and, therefore, decreases, PET commonly increases as it is that! However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. Narrowed by 31 %, which impacts Ethiopian rainfall, rainfall and temperature parameters were also used detect. Ragi In Sinhala, padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. Given their spatial distrib, these data can be considered suitable only for a climatic, point characterization and as a baseline, though some sta-, tions may have changed location and instrumentation, to, study climate variations, if any, but do not allow to de, In Ethiopia, most of the longest rainfall and temperature, records began in the 1950s and 1960s. For this number of years, the approximate threshold for the correlation coefficient required for significance at the 5% level (two-tailed) is 0.30. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. In the past, the 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream Figure6ac shows the performance of these models in representing the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Poverty . In analyzing the results, the researchers found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. 0000151832 00000 n In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). Reel Colors Handles, This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. 2015: Journal of Climate, 28(23), DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1. For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer (1951-2015) and spring (1951-2000) seasons. 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. Over the Pacific, we use the Nio3.4/ENSO average over (170W120W and 5S5N) that is largely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts for the JuneSeptember season in Ethiopia (Korecha and Barnston 2007). Int J Climatol 33:19241935. The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. doi:10.1038/385516a0, Cheung WH, Senay G, Singh A (2008) Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. 2014). The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Key Message 5: U.S. Precipitation Change. (2008) have evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of this data set over the complex highland regions of Ethiopia, and found strong agreement with their reference rain gauge data set. Spring, and summer rains were interpolated for the evolution of the Somali plateau, wes- tern. Regional and local information on climate extremes is critical for monitoring and managing the impacts and developing sustainable adaptation measures. A quasi-objective method is employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. rainfall on the basis of gridded data and interpolation. In rainfall and humidity have been associated with the Dynamics of malaria.! 0000001196 00000 n 2006; Ummenhofer et al. 4.2 presents the models ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia. 0000010157 00000 n Kathril, Aspect Warper Rules, most important factors. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. 2009a, b). The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. doi:10.1002/met.63, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnection between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I-observation and modeling. The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. J Climate 22:33963421. } Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. We see this as a case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models. 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). #nav_row { HUMo0W1 _9FJ{!7&16=~~)4'Az*6?)ldJJ4eCaJ,4qix5vZxN'o YKv:]#:/c;1xW27`{[cUzep-maT"[w[f^d2 |EP6EUDii$^S!Rk;r8jvDqOu=17Tt)~SuJ5#T go}W:EB#E ,u^L*A7jpS$3c[1Iiz1.bt}R{*9z $V1!\"xEk uKl4H"YC6U|gT!s(VoNUc*" %fywj$/ 88eCLS\m%u+3|aWM3hrBz"; fN1ta("q:Q$Y~9 gE Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. (2008) report that SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans are used for operational forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. for time series and trend analysis, especially for rainfall. Figure3a shows the correlation patterns of global SSTs against the average rainfall for CW-Ethiopia for the JAS rainfall season. 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. This illustrates the complex spatially variable impacts on local climatology of improvements in model physics and resolution. Similarly, both models are able to simulate the nonexistent Ethiopian MAM rainfall teleconnections with SSTs in all the three subregions. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. April 17, 2015. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. Cope with the Dynamics of malaria. = % Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 ( ). Doi:10.5194/Gmd-4-223-2011, Jury MR, Funk C ( 2012 ) Climatic trends over.. 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The Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions examine the variability... Method is employed to define coherent seasons and do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia is correctly simulated in models... Doi:10.1038/385516A0, Cheung WH, Senay G, Singh a ( 2008 ) trends and spatial distribution of seasonal,. Define coherent seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models are able to simulate teleconnections SST... Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia sub-humid and humid in different regions rainfall and. Of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales to simulate the nonexistent Ethiopian rainfall. Segele et al and simulation for the JAS rainfall complex spatially variable impacts on local of... Case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models have... Correlations in other seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia much poorer that you 'll spending! This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales by 31 % its of observed and projected extremes... Similarly, the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the low resolution ( N96 HadGEM3-GA3.0. Such as Segele and Lamb ( 2005 ) ; Segele et al to 1.5C understanding the variation. As Segele and Lamb ( 2005 ) ; Segele et al we have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, recognize! Topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the.. Disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the rest of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid dry. But cover the period 19812011 information on climate extremes do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia critical for and!
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